Oil and electricity prices affect much on the non-ferrous metal
According to the National Development and Reform Commission notice, since June 20, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased 1,000 yuan per ton, aviation kerosene prices increased 1,500 yuan per ton; Since July 1, the national average sales price increased 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour . Liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas prices are not adjusted. Price increases for non-ferrous metals sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals industry, especially the impact of different smelting industry in general power consumption is large. The national average sales price increased 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour, the industry will have much impact?
It is reported that the industry consumes about 6% to 7% of the country's generating capacity, including copper, aluminum, lead and zinc smelting energy consumption accounts for more than 90% of the total energy consumption of non-ferrous metals, and aluminum and non-ferrous metals accounted for the total energy consumption 75%. Therefore, although the price increase for non-ferrous metals industry influence negative side, but the impact on the different sub-sectors, has little effect on copper smelting costs, a significant impact on the aluminum industry. However, the copper smelting process consumes heavy oil, oil prices, copper smelting costs will be affected.
Guotai Junan that the price increase, aluminum affected little effect on zinc, lead and copper smelting. 200kA prebake cells consumption of 14,000 kWh / ton, the price increases are expected to enhance the aluminum cost about 350 yuan / ton; blister consumes about 750 kWh / ton of refined copper consumption per ton from 285 to 295 kWh / ton, the price increases are expected to enhance cost only 25 yuan; zinc smelting consumes about 3000 to 4000 kWh / ton, up 100 yuan price rise is expected to cost; lead smelting consumes about 1300 to 1500 kWh / ton price increases expected costs to rise 35 yuan. Costs to the limited capacity of primary aluminum metal market is hard to change the industry structure adjustment we believe that the price increase for the metal not to stimulate the market as a whole, mainly aluminum products for a greater impact. Aluminum price increases will result in the cost of upgrading, short-term corporate profits will be compressed, and may stimulate short-term aluminum price rose slightly. But the supply of primary aluminum is not tight, so the cost is not strong ability to pass. In this context, with a captive power plant of aluminum companies is relatively competitive.
In the long run, primary aluminum fundamentals have not changed much, the next two years, supply and demand situation will remain relatively loose, it is difficult to get beyond the increase in aluminum prices of other base metals. However, because of cost and other factors support aluminum prices fell space is not great.
Also, consider the macro level, the oil price and electricity price increases may lead to CPI remained at a high level in the third quarter, the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policy, which could lead to slower economic growth, decline in demand for metals, metal prices and long-term trend will pressure. However, global inflation is likely to continue improving, and the context of inflation will once again get the metal commodity funds favor, pushing futures market metal prices. Lengnuanzizhi listed companies stocks will appear differentiation to adjust oil prices and electricity prices is undoubtedly the greatest benefit petroleum, petrochemical, power and new energy industries. But in modern society, rising oil prices, basic necessities will follow moving. And for most industries, the oil price is rising costs mean that corporate profits will be squeezed, aviation, shipping, logistics, car manufacturers and other transportation listed companies will bear the brunt, in addition, because of the NDRC clear coal for power generation can not follow price of coal stocks is bad. Therefore, the impact of price increases in oil prices on the stock market as a whole more complicated.
Shenyin that if prices suppressed domestic energy demand caused by the decline in global demand, the fall in international commodity prices such as crude oil, will reduce China imported inflationary pressures. Therefore, the price of China's stock market fell deep sites, it belongs to the good news, but to get rid of the weak pattern alone can not twelve policy, only active outside the capital in order to activate the market.
Hai Tong Securities believes that the greater the impact on the non-ferrous metal price. While refined oil and electricity price reform was finally implemented, favorable long-term economic development, but the short term will push up inflation. Oil price increases and the cost of electricity price reform will enhance some of the industry's profit margins squeezed. Price adjustment for copper, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metals industry have a negative impact, tons of product costs will increase, may be concerned about aluminum, tin, rare earth metals and precious metal stocks. Inflation pressures, non-ferrous metals market cyclical adjustment has not ended June 20 Qilu Securities Investor report that the adjustment of petrol prices, indicating that the market price relationship of operating mechanism to gradually relax. From the impact point of view, petrol price increases to a certain extent, will now present it at a high level of domestic inflation to bring greater pressure. Within an expected period of time, from the tight monetary policy will be strictly enforced. Investors need to pay close attention to the impact on the petrochemical thus, delivery of aviation, nonferrous metals and steel industries.
Qilu Securities, said the oil price increases, the petroleum and petrochemical industry is the largest direct beneficiaries, but the formation of a major bearish on the aviation industry, a certain impact on shipping. The price increase will have a direct impact on the overall cost non-ferrous metal industry continue to rise, especially a greater impact on corporate profits smelting. One third of the cost of the aluminum industry electricity costs, power consumption is about 14,500 kwh per ton electrolytic zinc consumption per ton of about 3500 kwh, accounting for about 8% of the zinc smelting costs. The price increases to make tons of aluminum costs increased by about 350 yuan per ton rise in zinc costs about 100 yuan, rising costs of copper, lead and industries are also affected to varying degrees. Although some aluminum producers have captive power plant, price increases has little influence, but this year the increase in coal prices will also be reflected in the overall costs of enterprises.
Qilu Securities, said that, overall, the tariff rate increases although modest, the market for coal linkage has also been expected, but did not rule out the latter part of the price still has upside potential, so that the cost of non-ferrous metal industry continue to rise. In addition, this summer has become increasingly tight supply of coal, power cuts in some areas will also affect the company's production. Therefore, non-ferrous metal industry adjustment period has not ended.Prev News：>
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